BETHESDA, Md. and RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C., June 11, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers today announced the release of the 2026 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast, offering a comprehensive review of the U.S. automotive aftermarket and projections through 2029.
Prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Joint Channel Forecast Model provides a detailed analysis of the automotive aftermarket landscape, examining key macroeconomic factors, vehicle trends and evolving consumer behaviors that continue to shape industry growth. The model remains the industry’s most widely recognized benchmark for defining the size and trajectory of the aftermarket, delivering actionable insights to support strategic decision-making.
Forecast for 2026 and Beyond
The 2026 Joint Channel Forecast projects that the total U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket will grow 5.2% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength across non-warranty sales of parts, fluids and service labor.
Looking further ahead, the market is forecast to grow to over $500 billion by 2029, continuing a sustained growth trajectory that builds on the industry’s post-pandemic rebound.
Despite ongoing global challenges—including a meaningful headwind from the Iran conflict—the outlook for the aftermarket remains positive. Resilient consumer behavior is expected to sustain demand, with Americans continuing to rely on personal vehicles and log sufficient miles driven to support steady aftermarket activity in line with the past several years.
Key Drivers of Growth
Several structural trends are expected to underpin industry expansion through the forecast period:
- Aging vehicle fleet: The continued aging of the U.S. light-duty fleet will drive increased demand for repair and maintenance services.
- Rising vehicle complexity: Increased penetration of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and other emerging technologies is elevating repair complexity and service value.
- Sustained consumer reliance on vehicles: Despite economic uncertainty, consumers remain dependent on personal transportation, supporting consistent aftermarket spending.
“The U.S. automotive aftermarket remains fundamentally strong, supported by long-term vehicle and consumer trends,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “The Joint Channel Forecast equips our members with the data and perspective they need to make informed decisions and seize opportunities in a dynamic marketplace.”
“Despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, driven by consumers’ commitment to maintaining and repairing their vehicles,” said Emily Poladian, president, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “This year’s Joint Channel Forecast highlights the aftermarket’s strong growth potential, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and the increasing complexity of vehicle technologies.”
The Joint Channel Forecast is available in the Auto Care Association’s 2027 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2027factbook and at the MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers website at mema.org.
About the Joint Channel Forecast
The Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast is developed collaboratively by the Auto Care Association, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and S&P Global Market Intelligence. Drawing on extensive government data, proprietary modeling and industry inputs, the forecast provides an authoritative view of aftermarket size, growth and channel dynamics.
Stacey Miller Auto Care Association 240-333-1017 stacey.miller@autocare.org
